Muni Commentary

 This week we cover two topics – Weekly Earnings, looking at the haves and have nots, and Pension Obligations and Liabilities. Alex Pendolino guides us through the Weekly Earnings with insightful analysis. We then offer a few quotes and a link to a commentary prepared by John Mauldin.

This week we bring you the March 2017 DIVER Geo Scores and take a look at housing at the State level. Given some of what we articulate below, expect to see a bit more on housing in the coming month.

 DIVER Geo Scores are designed to quickly communicate the overall economic health of a selected geographic area on a scale of 0 to 10. The Geo Score reflects the relative economic well-being of the location and is available for all States, counties, and approximately 350 of the largest cities. Calculations are released monthly and are based on multiple, meaningful economic and demographic data from the employment, income and housing categories.

As March Madness 2017 predictions abounded, so too did predictions about the timing of the next increase in the Fed Funds rate and how many would take place over the course of 2017. The increase in the Fed Funds rate by 25bps on March 15 was of little surprise – less surprising, perhaps, than the eye-popping stats of Gonzaga’s ability to keep possession of the ball or some of the upsets!

 This week we bring you the February 2017 DIVER Geo Scores and, in case you missed it, some interesting news and a quote around the Labor Department’s Fiduciary Rule. Last month, a reader requested that we provide, in addition to the locations with the greatest moves, the top and bottom States, counties and cities. Given our limited space, we refer you to our website for that data.

 This week we look at the recently released MSRB report regarding disclosure filings and offer some facts and observations.  We also look at those obligors that might be impacted should the Oroville Dam fail.

 This week we bring you the January 2017 DIVER Geo Scores. DIVER Geo Scores are designed to quickly communicate the overall economic health of a selected geographic area on a scale of 0 to 10. The Geo Score reflects the relative economic well-being of the location and is available for all States, counties, and approximately 350 of the largest cities. Calculations are released monthly and are based on multiple, meaningful economic and demographic data from the employment, income and housing categories.

 With so much attention on job growth from both the outgoing and new administrations, we thought it would be interesting to take a look at what the data, through the end of 2016, tells us about the employment situation relative to our population. Unlike politicians, we do not seek to cast credit or blame, nor do we seek to see if one party or the other is offering “alternative facts.” Our objective is to offer some observations that can be relevant to those focused on the municipal bond market, and how changes to our population and employment situation may impact municipal credits. As for conclusions, as with our politicians, it is up to you to decide which data points and combinations thereof provide you with the “real” vs. “alternative” facts. I do offer some of my perspective throughout. Due to the number of tables, this commentary will print a bit longer than usual.

 This week we look at how State GDP (and therefore employment and tax receipts) may be impacted should certain campaign promises be kept.  As we prepare for the inauguration of President-Elect Donald Trump, thankfully we have been spared “fighting in the streets.”[1]  However, municipal market participants are bracing for uncertainty as the Trump administration and the newly elected Congress begin the process of implementing policy ideas promised during the campaign such as repealing the Affordable Care Act and increasing infrastructure spending.

 This week we start with a review of the SEC’s announcement ending the MCDC initiative, a possible SEC focal point for 2017, and bring you the December 2016 DIVER Geo Scores.  DIVER Geo Scores are designed to quickly communicate the overall economic health of a selected geographic area on a scale of 0 to 10 and reflect the relative economic well-being of all States, counties, and approximately 350 of the largest cities.  Calculations are released monthly and are based on multiple, meaningful economic and demographic data from the employment, income and housing categories.