Muni Commentary

This week we take a closer look at President Trump’s recent imposition of tariffs and the potential impact on exporting states and key industries.

 On Thursday, March 8, President Trump signed proclamations imposing a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum which, at least temporarily, exempted NAFTA partners Canada and Mexico. The tariffs are slated to begin 15 days from the signing. This action by President Trump follows his campaign promises to implement a more protectionist trading regime (or put America first – political perspective dependent), a topic Lumesis’ Eli Molin explored just prior to the President’s inauguration. As the administration implements these tariffs and continues to renegotiate NAFTA , we will update Eli’s piece with new data and a refined focus as the specificity of the tariffs become more apparent.

This week we bring you the February 2018 DIVER Geo Scores, focusing on locations with the greatest moves year on year as well as the top and bottom scores at the State, City, and County levels for the month of February.

DIVER Geo Scores are designed to quickly communicate the overall economic health of a selected geographic area on a scale of 0 to 10. The Geo Score reflects the relative economic well-being of the location and is available for all States, counties, and approximately 350 of the largest cities. Calculations are released monthly and are based on multiple, meaningful economic and demographic data from the employment, income and housing categories.

While the SEC’s MCDC initiative concluded in 2016, its shadow continues to lurk over the municipal bond market.  For those issuers that have come to market since the SEC issued Cease and Desist Orders (“Orders”), you undoubtedly have experienced increased scrutiny of your material event and continuing disclosure filings.  The Orders and MCDC have caused many issuers to reassess their policies, procedures and controls around filing obligations, filing history and disclosure management prospectively.  This article will highlight some of what the market has learned from, and since, the MCDC initiative and how issuers have responded.

Amazon recently announced that it has whittled the list of contender locations for its second headquarters (HQ2) from 238 down to 20. Stamford, CT (home to Lumesis) sent a proposal, but unfortunately did not make the cut. That got us thinking that we might be able to provide Amazon some guidance based on the wealth of data we have on hand. Looking at 19 of the 20 locations (we do not have comparable data for the lone Canadian city, Toronto), below we use a variety of metrics that we believe may be important to Amazon in their decision-making process.

 This week we bring you the December 2017 DIVER Geo Scores and, while others are trying to predict new issuance for 2018, we are coming out with our selections of the two final teams and the winner of Super Bowl LII. More on that in a bit. In addition to presenting the locations with the greatest moves year on year, we also present the top and bottom Geo Scores for States, counties and cities for December.

DIVER Geo Scores are designed to quickly communicate the overall economic health of a selected geographic area on a scale of 0 to 10. The Geo Score reflects the relative economic well-being of the location and is available for all States, counties, and approximately 350 of the largest cities. Calculations are released monthly and are based on multiple, meaningful economic and demographic data from the employment, income and housing categories.

 This week we are going to dive deeper into a discussion of housing price trends and what a shift could mean for local governments’ finances. I wanted to start with and expand upon a comment that Gregg Bienstock made in his commentary on our November Geo Score update:

 “Among counties with the greatest decline in their Geo Score over the past year, many saw relatively decent unemployment results, but Big Horn, MT saw a significant jump in its unemployment rate. All but Warren, NJ, Big Horn, MT and Burlington, NJ also saw a decline in their labor force participation. Housing was a mixed bag, with all but Big Horn, MT seeing a rise in the foreclosure rate while all but Tazewell, IL saw rising housing prices (yes, I am still concerned about the seemingly endless rise in housing prices).”  (Emphasis mine.)

This week we bring you the November 2017 DIVER Geo Scores. In addition to presenting the locations with the greatest moves year on year, we also present the top and bottom Geo Scores for States, counties and cities for November.

DIVER Geo Scores are designed to quickly communicate the overall economic health of a selected geographic area on a scale of 0 to 10. The Geo Score reflects the relative economic well-being of the location and is available for all States, counties, and approximately 350 of the largest cities. Calculations are released monthly and are based on multiple, meaningful economic and demographic data from the employment, income and housing categories.

 This week we bring you the October 2017 DIVER Geo Scores. In addition to presenting the locations with the greatest moves year on year, we also present the top and bottom Geo Scores for States, counties and cities for October. This is a follow-on from the new format presented last month which  was positively received.

 DIVER Geo Scores are designed to quickly communicate the overall economic health of a selected geographic area on a scale of 0 to 10. The Geo Score reflects the relative economic well-being of the location and is available for all States, counties, and approximately 350 of the largest cities. Calculations are released monthly and are based on multiple, meaningful economic and demographic data from the employment, income and housing categories.

 This week we bring you the September 2017 DIVER Geo Scores and take a broader look than we have over the past few months. In addition to presenting the locations with the greatest moves year on year, we also present the top and bottom Geo Scores for States, counties and cities for September. Why the change? Based on feedback, it seems readers want to see not only year on year changes, but also the current status of States, counties and cities at both ends of the Geo Score scale.

 DIVER Geo Scores are designed to quickly communicate the overall economic health of a selected geographic area on a scale of 0 to 10. The Geo Score reflects the relative economic well-being of the location and is available for all States, counties, and approximately 350 of the largest cities. Calculations are released monthly and are based on multiple, meaningful economic and demographic data from the employment, income and housing categories.

Before getting started, we here at Lumesis send our thoughts and prayers to those impacted by Harvey. This week we bring you the August 2017 DIVER Geo Scores and a look at the SEC’s Beaumont Order.

DIVER Geo Scores are designed to quickly communicate the overall economic health of a selected geographic area on a scale of 0 to 10. The Geo Score reflects the relative economic well-being of the location and is available for all States, counties, and approximately 350 of the largest cities. Calculations are released monthly and are based on multiple, meaningful economic and demographic data from the employment, income and housing categories.